[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 09N17W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N29W TO 02N46W. ISOLATED LIGHT
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 39N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO
18N77W TO THE S COAST OF HAITI NEAR 18N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE SHEARLINE. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER
PUERTO RICO GENERATED ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE MAINLAND
CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC FROM 17N70W TO 24N58W TO 39N53W TO 49N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 34W-38W. A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N28W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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