[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N18W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 04N24W TO 04N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 38N83W.
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N82W TO
19N78W TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR
OVER PUERTO RICO GENERATED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE
MAINLAND CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
INTO THE N ATLANTIC FROM 20N71W TO 33N55W TO 48N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-39W. A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 39N29W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY
N OF 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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