[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 5N...
TO 4N10W AND 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 5N25W 4N36W
AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N SOUTHWARD FROM 22N EASTWARD...AND FROM
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...AND INTO TEXAS...AND INCLUDING THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...ACROSS SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS...
INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH...
KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...
KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. HARLINGEN WAS
REPORTING VISIBILITIES FROM 1 TO 3 MILES AND FOG FROM 13/1118
UTC AND 13/1137 UTC. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...
AND 2 MILES AND FOG IN BEAUMONT TEXAS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA...TO 14N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA CHANGES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FROM
80W WESTWARD...TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY ELSEWHERE.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W...AND BEYOND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N101W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO
TO LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL
BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT...AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF IT.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A./GULF
COASTAL STATES...INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT JUST HAS
PASSED THROUGH BERMUDA. THE FRONT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF
BERMUDA...PASSING THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W AND 28N80W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 23N67W 21N71W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.14. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W 27N60W 25N70W...TO 22N82W IN WESTERN CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N39W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 22N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N32W 17N36W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N38W 26N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N39W 19N35W 23N34W 26N33W...AND FROM 21N
TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 32N
BETWEEN 33W AND 43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N
TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N15W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N19W...TO 32N30W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N17W 27N21W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 27N20W 28N30W...AND TO
32N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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