[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ BEGINS AT THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 6N10W AND
CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 6N33W TO 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 4N-9N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE US IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
BASIN. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF AROUND 10-15 KT SUPPORTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT UPPER-
LEVELS...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES AS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF...ADVECTING MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED ACROSS SE US IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 81W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS W OF 78W ALLOWING FOR COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE S...A 1009 MB
LOW IS OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. THIS LOW PAIRED WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 78W-83W. TO THE E...A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AFFECTING CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...CONTINUES
NORTH OF THE ISLAND. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED DUE TO A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THAT PREVAILS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 45N66W.
THIS FRONT IS FROM 45N66W TO 30N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM 27N-46N BETWEEN
58W-72W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 24N66W TO
21N76W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 22N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED
FROM 29N38W TO 26N40W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 21N32W TO
16N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN 17W-29W ENHANCED BY A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 30N20W TO 23N23W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS
THE NW ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
SW WHILE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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