[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 04N30W TO 04N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 12W-
15W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
MOSTLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF. COLD AIR
ADVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO REMAINS OVER THE E GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A PLUME OF
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVERS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF MOVING
E. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE GULF TO BE MOSTLY VOID
OF CONVECTION. EXPECT HOWEVER FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A FRONT S OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE HAS NOW DISSIPATED. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ELSEWHERE...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF N HONDURAS
AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS REPORTED. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N58W TO 26N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
22N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-58W. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W TO
FLORIDA. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N41W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N37W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 32W-34W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO E OF THE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JET IS ALSO OVER THE E
ATLANTIC PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-25N
BETWEEN 15W-35W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE S
OF 30N. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
WEAKEN AND FILL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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