[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 04N37W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03N-06N E OF 33W. A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 07N TO
15N BETWEEN 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WISCONSIN. THIS OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MIDDLE- TO LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION. ALOFT...MODERATE MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BASIN BY EPAC SW FLOW SUPPORT BROKEN
TO OVERCAST. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT IS ACROSS
THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A
CYCLONE ALOFT WHICH EXTENDS A TROUGH SOUTHWARD TO A BASE OVER
THE SW N ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW SW TO
NW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE SW BASIN...A 1009 MB LOW
IS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. ELSEWHERE...AN OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...INCLUDING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS
FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE FRONT AND THE LOW IN THE SW BASIN ARE FORECAST TO VANISH
LATER TODAY.

HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE NW ISLAND TO COASTAL WATERS OF
NICARAGUA ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TO CEASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE
ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA VANISHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE SW N ATLC ALONG 30N60W TO NW HISPANIOLA
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO
COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. FARTHER
EAST...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC. HOWEVER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 28N52W TO 18N58W LACKING CONVECTION. OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N38W WHICH AT THE TIME LACKS CONVECTION. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT E-NE OF THE LOW SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-35N E OF 32W. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC DISSIPATES WHILE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. THE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC WILL WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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