[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N25W TO 1N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7N22W TO 6N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-29W AND WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM S INDIANA TO S ALABAMA THEN SW TO LAGUNA MADRE
MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
TEXAS AND WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS AMPLIFYING
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E THAT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA JUST E OF
FLORIDA AND OVER THE W ATLC. A SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 17N93W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR W
ATLC AND NE FLORIDA FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO APALACHICOLA BAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA
SW OVER THE GULF TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING SKIES
CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING
OVER THE E GULF FROM 23N-30N E OF 89W ACROSS FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF LATE TONIGHT AND WILL EXTEND
FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON NIGHT AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS S OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W.
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N65W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N LEAVING THIS PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS BRINGING FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS TO ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES OVER HISPANIOLA ARE REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE ISLAND
FROM SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA INTO
THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N75W COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 54W-68W SUPPORTING A 1011
MB LOW NEAR 27N61W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO BEYOND
32N59W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 23N61W TO
OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE E PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
BETWEEN 49W-61W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 27N52W ALONG
19N55W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1045 MB
HIGH ABOUT 300 NM N OF THE AZORES. IN THE FAR E ATLC IS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 33W S INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N
SUPPORTING A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N11W AND EXTENDS TO
29N21W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 20W-
35W. PLEASE SEE METEO FRANCE FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50
LFPW FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC TONIGHT INTO
SUN AND WILL EXTEND FROM 32N71W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA MON NIGHT. A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS
LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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