[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE
LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W-
47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF
THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-
83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN
83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S
OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.
A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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