[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N29W TO 11N31W MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 30W-35W. NO CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE MOSTLY N OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N41W TO 11N43W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N66W TO 10N69W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 63W-73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. A 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS IS JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
10N20W TO 9N30W TO 10N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 27W-33W...AND FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 40W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1009 MB LOW
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 91W-97W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N89W TO
18N92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 88W-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM
25N81W TO 25N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO NEAR 23N99W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N85W. A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO OVER THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N97W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 73W-80W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W
...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION
S OF THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH
STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
75W-80W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 31N68W TO 29N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-74W. A 1022MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N64W WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 35N45W WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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