[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 28/0000 UTC...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N
70.7W OR ABOUT 305 NM WNW OF BERMUDA...MOVING NE AT 15 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 31N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 21N25W TO 10N26W...ENDING ON A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED AT 10N26W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT
15 KT. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITHIN THIS WAVE AS
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N37W TO 11N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...THEREFORE
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 140 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 10N57W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE S OF 17N WHICH ALONG WITH
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N72W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 16N AND E OF 72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N25W TO 11N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N-16N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED
BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1011 MB
LOW IS BEING ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W FROM WHICH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE TO END IN ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF
THIS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOW IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N-30N BETWEEN 91W-96W AFFECTING
COASTAL SW LOUISIANA...S TEXAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO PRESENT N OF THE LOW
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...MAINLY FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 86W-
90W. AT UPPER-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 24N97W.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS AREA AND FAIR
WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF EXCEPT NEAR THE LOWS PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED. E-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHILE N-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SW INTO NE MEXICO BY THU MORNING WHILE THE LOW IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 10N73W. A
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH CONNECT TO THIS LOW AND
ENHANCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 68W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
PREVAILS ACROSS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA...AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON
THE EASTERN BASIN GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS
AREA SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5-15 KT DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS IN
THE E-SE PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING TO HAITI. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE IS SLIGHTLY
ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND BY THU MORNING.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ISLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...ITS
RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-73W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CRISTOBAL. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS CUBA
AFFECTING THEIR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE
TROPICAL WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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