[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED 24.2N 72.9W AT 24/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 125 NM E-NE OF LONG ISLAND OR ABOUT 160 NM E OF GREAT
EXUMA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED...4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE AREA
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 70W-74W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N22W TO
12N22W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 18N30W
TO 12N30W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N45W TO 10N45W
MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N21W 10N33W TO 6N39W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N45W 10N50W TO 10N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 32W-39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 87W WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 27N92W. THE UPPER WINDS ARE DRIVING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS W ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 93W.
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA E-NE
TO NEAR FOR MYERS FLORIDA. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 83W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MON NIGHT. TROUGHING WILL BUILD FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS STARTING TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-87W WITH
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WEST. SURFACE FLOW INTO
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND FAR E CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-82W WITH
REMNANT SHOWERS S OF 11N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-78W.
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N
E OF 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
SURFACE FLOW INTO T.S. CRISTOBAL IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS CRISTOBAL MOVES SLOWLY N-NW AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN. THIS COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ONAMET HAS ISSUED WEATHER
ALERTS FOR FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS  OF THE
ISLAND. PLEASE SEE ONAMET WEBSITE AT WWW.ONAMET.GOV.DO FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS T.S. CRISTOBAL JUST EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-75W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-81W. AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO 23N58W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
14N55W TO 9N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 54W-
61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 55W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N29W. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS MOVING N-NW THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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