[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15
KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N23W TO 13N24W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N53W TO 12N56W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
12N25W TO AN 1012 MB LOW AT 11N30W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 86W...BETWEEN 23N-26N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF
TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS
THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF
JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA
COAST...E OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
MAINLY ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE AND EMBEDDED
LOW APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23-
26N...BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS NEAR 30491W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RELATED TO THIS LOW NEAR 25N-28N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. EXPECT
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


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