[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N.
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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