[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N25W TO 11N27W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS AT A MINIMUM AS
THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY DOES SHOW A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 05N-20N E OF 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N40W MOVING W AT 10 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN NW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW...HOWEVER SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS HELPING TO
SUPPRESS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG AND NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WELL
DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N74W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LIMITED
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH SOME ISOLATED TSTMS
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE AXIS AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S OF 23N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N20W TO 11N27W TO 13N33W TO LOW PRES
NEAR 11N140W TO 09N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 09N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
08N59W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM SE OF THE AXIS E OF 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                    						
1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W EXTENDS AN
E TO W RIDGE TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTEROMETER AND
BUOY/SHIP DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 0-2 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-
S WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 27N98W
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NE SIDE OF
THE ANTICYCLONE AND E-SE OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 91W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS JUST E OF FLORIDA IN THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N8W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW-W ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
AND SW FLORIDA AND THE E CENTRAL GULF UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...     																								
OTHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
DISCUSSED ABOVE...A FAIRLY BROAD PRES PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA TO THE NW ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE THE TIGHTEST WHILE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUES OVER HISPANIOLA
WITH ENHANCEMENT AND SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED TO THE SW-W OVER JAMAICA. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                               																
A PAIR OF 1021 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE IN THE ATLC WITH ONE LOCATED
NEAR 27N58W AND THE OTHER NEAR 27N72W. THESE HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO MERGE NEAR 27N68W IN 24 HOURS. AN E TO W RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG 27N TO NEAR FORT PIERCE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 28N47W EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO
THE SW TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N69W TO 29N77W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTED BY A MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N33W TO 23N46W
WITH A REMNANT TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 22N51W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE AXIS. 1014 MB
LOW PRES IS TO THE W NEAR 30N42W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM
THE LOW TO 26N44W. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST OF MOROCCO AT 24N15W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW-W TO 14N45W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE
TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES NEAR 17N51W. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH
FROM 13N TO 20N E OF 55W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BRIEFLY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC EXCEPT 1-3 FT
NEAR AND ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS AND INSIDE THE BAHAMAS...WITH A
SET OF NE-E SWELL BUILDING SEAS TO 5-8 FT FROM THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE TRADE WINDS WILL BE
THE STRONGEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net