[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161134 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...CORRECTION FOR SPECIAL FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N20W TO 21N20W MOVING W AT 5 KT. A
1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N20W. IN ADDITION...THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE N-NE ALONG THE W AFRICA
COAST TO 23N17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 20W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 20N36W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN 30W-40W
WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS TO THE S-SE OF THE LOW
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N31W TO 08N37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N62W TO 21N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 57W-67W WITH
A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 12N62W. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 62W-65W...AND FROM 16N-
19N BETWEEN 61W-64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
15N20W TO 14N30W TO 12N35W TO 09N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N48W TO 10N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FOCUSED NEAR 25N94W EXTENDING S-SW TO A BASE OVER EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 25N92W AND 29N92W THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
26N FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 90W THEN SW INTO A 1017 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 21N97W. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SW GEORGIA TO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ALONG 30N...AND A MARGINALLY DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO THE BASE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N E OF 86W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO ALONG 28N LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND TWO POCKETS OF WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...ONE IMPACTING THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EVENTUALLY THE
ABC ISLANDS...AND THE OTHER OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...MOVING CLOSER TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER MAJOR FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N81W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 82W-
87W. FINALLY...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-83W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS EARLIER
CONVECTION IS ALL BUT DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. A MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND...HOWEVER WITH
THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AND A GOOD CHANCE THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GENERALLY WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED
OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 26N78W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. WHILE WEAK
RIDGING PREVAILS ALONG 26N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 68W-80W THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB
HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N55W AND 26N62W CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HIGHS...A STATIONARY
FRONT DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W. THE FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO 28N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LASTLY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 35N24W TO 26N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN/RAMOS


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