[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N18W TO 14N19W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A 1011 MB
LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 14N19W. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOISTURE AREA FROM 5N-
21N E OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N32W TO 11N33W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 15N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 16N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS AT 11N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N57W TO 8N59W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
15N16W TO 12N23W TO 11N33W TO 8N40W TO 9N44W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 9N44W AND CONTINUES TO 12N57W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
ALONG 26N IS PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA... W
CUBA...AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER FLORIDA N OF 25N. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 80W...AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA N OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER W FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AND THE E GULF
FROM 25N-29N E OF 86W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE HIGH TO
FORM OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N85W. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO FORM OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W...AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
TO REMAIN OVER THE N BAHAMAS. THE NET RESULT WILL PRODUCE MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF...AND CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION
OVER FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 82W-87W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND S NICARAGUA MOSTLY DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER N
VENEZUELA N OF 8N BETWEEN 61W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W.
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS N OF VENEZUELA AND E OF 80W. DRY AIR
SAL IS ALSO SUPPRESSING MOST CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION...AND CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER HAITI. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS SAT. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N50W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-75W. ALSO OF NOTE...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 13N32W VERY
CLOSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N33W. DRY AIR
SAL IS S OF 27N TO THE TROPICAL WAVES E OF 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/ERA

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