[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W
AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N43W 15N45W 10N47W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED A BIT BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N
BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS
AND WESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN ONE
CLUSTER ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
12N83W...AND IN BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 18N16W...TO 10N26W 9N30W 11N40W AND 11N48W. THE ITCZ DOES
NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AREA...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. IT
IS NOT DIGGING SOUTHWARD ANY MORE...AND THE FRONT THAT IT WAS
SUPPORTING HAS BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N
NORTHWARD...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 90W EASTWARD.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT...24 HOURS AGO...WAS RUNNING FROM
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS GULF COASTS INTO MEXICO ALONG THE
COAST NEAR 20N...NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. NEARBY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND IN MEXICO.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
IT IS SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
90W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
26N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
90W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N68W...
BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N/25N. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...STATION KBQX IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF
1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG...KGVX...KCRH...KATP...AND KVOA. ICAO
STATION KGRY IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IN TEXAS...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN FALFURRIAS. IN
LOUISIANA...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN LAKE CHARLES...
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IN FLORIDA...A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IN
PENSACOLA...A LOW CLOUD CEILING IN CRESTVIEW...MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS IN APALACHICOLA...A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS
AND FOG IN TALLAHASSEE...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL HONDURAS
AND WESTERN NICARAGUA. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN ONE
CLUSTER ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
12N83W...AND IN BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE 17N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 75W EASTWARD...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET
FROM 11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...
ACCOMPANIED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL
BE IN THE CENTER OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME
PERIOD.

THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...BEING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT
WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...STILL WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N50W 28N62W...AND FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD
TO THE WEST OF THE 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N75W 31N77W 28N79W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 24N NORTHWARD FROM 50W
WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.72 FOR
BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN 57W AND 67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N42W...TO A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N57W...TO 25N68W...BEYOND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N/25N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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