[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED...BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 21W/22W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W
AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED...BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 20N37W 16N39W 10N40W
FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N
TO 15N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE COVER THE AREA THAT IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 79W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MEXICO...ALONG 99W...FROM
20N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE
BETWEEN 94W IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 105W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 11N22W...14N31W 12N38W AND 9N43W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N43W TO 6N54W...NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH TEXAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST ALONG 29N...AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CLEARLY
MARKS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 84W AND 93W.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
WAS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS 16 TO 24
HOURS AGO REMAINS. IT IS COMPARATIVELY NARROWER NOW...AND MORE
CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
GULF COASTS INTO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 20N. SOME NEARBY
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND IN MEXICO.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT WAS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO...
NOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS
SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM GUATEMALA TO 26N BETWEEN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
90W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT REACHES
26N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N64W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KXIH...KCRH...KATP...KVOA...AND
KMIS. ICAO STATION KMDJ IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
TEXAS IN BAY CITY AND GALVESTON...A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
COVERS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN LAFAYETTE
LOUISIANA...IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. PANAMA CITY AND FORT MYERS ARE
REPORTING RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF EACH CITY.
APALACHICOLA AND PUNTA GORDA ARE REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 79W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.06 FOR
GUADELOUPE...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
PANAMA...TO EXTREME SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 8N83W...AND
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 81W IN WESTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
8N81W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PANAMA AND BETWEEN 80W AND THE
BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF
PANAMA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 79W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO
AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL
BE IN THE CENTER OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
29N56W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N54W 29N56W
TROUGH...AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 31N48W AND 31N50W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N50W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
32N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W
26N48W 25N60W 24N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS
0.97 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N58W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 57W AND
62W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1027 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N29W...THROUGH 32N32W...TO 27N45W
26N64W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF MEXICO IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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