[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE W OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N21W TO 9N22W. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N37W THROUGH
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N37W TO 10N38W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI
TPW AND METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE SAHARA DRY AIR IS
ENTRAINING INTO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 36W-41W BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N75W TO
11N76W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS MODERATE MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HINDERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 12N22W TO 15N32W TO 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N37W TO 8N46W.
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 8N47W
TO 8N51W. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BASE
EXTENDING INTO THE NE COAST OF TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO 27N91W AND ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 26N E OF 93W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N90W IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH VARIABLE WINDS
OF 5-10 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
GULF WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH THU MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTED BY AN
INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS
ON THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 82W. MODERATE TRADES IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY THU MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

MODERATELY MOIST DEEP LAYER AIR ACROSS THE ISLAND IS ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT THEN FIRE OFF AGAIN WED AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N75W PROVIDING
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MODERATE SHOWERS AND FEW TSTMS TO
DEVELOP N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 24N58W. MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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