[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W...JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN PUERTO RICO...
TO 16N66W AND 13N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE
IN PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA/NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W...TO 16N20W 11N30W 11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N34W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...TO COASTAL SURINAME
NEAR 6N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A GULF OF MEXICO
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W TO A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N102W IN MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 30N
BETWEEN 86W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 26N85W 23N90W 20N94W.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KGHB HAS BEEN REPORTING MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS...AND AT KBVE IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE
AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KHQI.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED AT
THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA/NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 80W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 21N
BETWEEN WESTERN HAITI AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N87W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 91W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN EL SALVADOR AND IN
ITS COASTAL WATERS...AND IN MEXICO AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.60 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
PANAMA TO 9N80W...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W REACHING EASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN WESTERN HAITI AND 80W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE IN LA ROMANA AND IN
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEM THAT
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT FIRST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW...WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N68W TO 32N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N73W TO
32N77W...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
TO THE NORTH OF 31N81W 31N70W BEYOND 32N64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO A
26N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W
AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 32N44W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. IT IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N63W. A
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 26N63W CENTER TO 21N61W...AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 38N23W TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N39W...TO 28N50W AND 22N68W...TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N81W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND WESTERN
CUBA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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