[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N40W TO 10N41W MOVING W AT 20 KT. METEOSAT
PSEUDO NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW THE PRESENCE OF
DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N63W TO 11N65W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E
OF 67W...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N83W TO INLAND COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...MOVING W AT 10 KT.
A MID-UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS WAVE WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 78W-
84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N
BETWEEN W OF 75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
18N16W TO 11N24W TO 10N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N36W AND
CONTINUES TO 8N45W 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-10N E OF 20W...FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-32W AND FROM 6N-14N
BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE BASIN AND
SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W
WHICH IS PROVIDING VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MODERATE
MOISTURE INTO THE BASIN FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE SW N
ATLC WHICH IS FUELING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N
OF 23N E OF 90W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND NE MEXICO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE NW
BASIN FROM 22N-27N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN MORNING WHICH
WILL BRING RAINSHOWERS TO THE S-SW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W-NW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. AN
ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THIS
WAVE AS WELL AS SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 79W-85W. MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 13N. A SECOND TROPICAL
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BASIN. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 12N E OF 67W...INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN OVERALL DEEP LAYER DRY
ENVIRONMENT. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LIGHTER WINDS OF 10 KT DOMINATE IN THE
NW BASIN. HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE WEEKEND.
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER CURRENTLY DOMINATE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IS ON THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINSHOWERS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH MID-UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS W OF 70W...TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FARTHER EAST AND N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES...HOWEVER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT PRE-FRONTAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 56W-65W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N38W DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF
20N. FOR TROPICAL WAVES...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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