[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.8N 71.9W AT 05/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 385 NM TO THE WNW OF BERMUDA. BERTHA IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...OR 25 DEGREES...19 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-35N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WAVE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N22W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST AREA OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN. WAVE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 23N60W TO 16N63W TO 11N63W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST AREA OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WAVE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM N HISPANIOLA AT 20N72W TO 15N75W TO N COLOMBIA AT 10N76W
MOVING W AT 20KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 71W-73W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND ENTERS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 12N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 10N20W TO 9N30W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N30W TO 7N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 15W-21W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-31W...AND FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 32W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE E GULF
W OF TAMPA AT 27N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA S OF 28N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N94W TO S MEXICO AT 17N95W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. A COL IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER S FLORIDA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF BARBADOS FROM 15N56W TO
11N58W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 57W-61W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING W AT
20 KT. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
INVERTED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE PRODUCING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER PRODUCERS AS THEY MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA HAS FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION S OF THE ISLAND. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ISLAND. SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY AND WED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO COCOA BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-78W TO INCLUDE THE N
BAHAMAS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N59W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM FROM THE CENTER.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/ERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net