[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA IS NEAR 27.6N 73.6W AT 04/1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 200 NM TO THE ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 350
DEGREES...AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO
85 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG MAINLY OVER
THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 140 NM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 16N21W TO 09N20W...
MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED
IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 54W/55W FROM 10N-
22N...MOVING W 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIED ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS.

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N66W ACROSS THE EASTERN
TIP OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 10N66W...MOVING W 20 KNOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. THERE IS MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICAN COAST AT 14N17W TO
10N25W TO 07N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N35W TO 05N55W. A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR
07.5N27.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
SE LOUISIANA TO 27N93W. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LOCATED
E OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THEN DIPS SW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED N OF 26N
BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF NEAR 25N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER
THE GULF WATERS S OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N98W. A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING NW 10-15 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 81W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
ALOFT COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG 81W S OF 14N TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER CUBA W OF 81.5W.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS HISPANIOLA EXCEPT FOR A FEW WESTWARD MOVING
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ATLANTIC W OF ABOUT
68W. A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 34N49W
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 23N59W. THE CIRCULATION
IS FORECAST TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N50W IN 48 HOURS. SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS S
OF 13N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 25W INTO S AMERICA. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 22N E OF 30W.
AT THE SURFACE A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 35N26W THROUGH A
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N39W TO NEAR 28N45W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
LOCATED ALONG THE S CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTLINE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED N OF 25N W OF 77W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA E COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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