[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 56.3W AT 01/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 280 NM ESE OF SAINT
LUCIA MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N22W TO 20N20W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED 700 MB TROUGH
ALONG 21W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDS N-NW FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE WITH AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED TO THE
EAST OF A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N34N. THE BROAD
AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS NOTED FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN
30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N62W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA AND
LARGELY SURROUNDED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NE OF THE
WAVE AXIS N OF 14N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
10N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N34W TO 04N39W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO
04N46W TO 09N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
OVER THE SE CONUS. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED S-SE FROM
THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THEN SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR FORT MYERS. THE FRONT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 25N TO 90W. MOST EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DIMINISHED...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 83W. ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS NOTED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THAT
IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS INLAND SE TEXAS
NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS N OF 28N W OF 93W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR 29N88W.
THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDING E-SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOCUSED ON AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N77W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROVIDING NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN CUBA COAST. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF
12N BETWEEN 80W-84W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL NW TO W FLOW
IS PROVIDING MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EVEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED WEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...
HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. FINALLY...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF
WINDS EXPECTED S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE
ISLAND REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 24N64W. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINING
LARGELY N OF 30N THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD TO 32N76W THEN NE TO BEYOND 37N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N W OF 76W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N64W
GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 63W-73W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N47W THAT IS SUPPORTING A 1016
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW CENTER SW TO 26N46W THEN W-NW TO 28N58W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 41W-46W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
49W-59W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS N OF 20N E OF
40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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