[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N22W TO 01N30W 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
05N-10N E OF 29W AND FROM 02S-04N BETWEEN 26W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE MODERATE MOIST CONTENT IS NOTED ON
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...DRY AIR ALSO DOMINATES AT THE LOWER
LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. OVER
THE NW BASIN...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND S-SE WIND FLOW SUPPORT
ADVECTION FOG N OF 27N W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...S-SE FLOW OF 10-15
KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE
NW BASIN AS A COLD FRONT ON TUE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT N-NE WEST OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO THU NIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY LIFTING
MECHANISM IN PLACE FAIR WEATHER IS BEING FAVORED. OTHERWISE...A
SLIGHT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND FAR
WESTERN BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHILE A MORE RELAXED
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTS WINDS OF 10-15 KT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...DRY STABLE AIR AT THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS FAVOR
FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST N OF CUBA E OF 80W IS
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST WEST OF ANDROS S OF 25N. OVER
THE NW ATLC WATERS...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
40N60W SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N59W SW TO
29N67W AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 30N55W TO 26N63W. THERE IS
NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SURFACE FEATURES AT THIS
TIME. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 47W-53W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N19W.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THU MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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