[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N22W TO 1N25W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM INLAND
OVER SW AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-12W...FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 12W-18W...AND FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS IS BEING
AMPLIFIED BY THIS STRONG UPPER LOW AND EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE E GULF TO OVER GEORGIA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF N OF 20N BETWEEN
91W-96W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W-91W. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES COVERING THE
AREA E OF 85W. THE STRONG COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES WILL WEAKEN BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT TO STALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON MON DRIFTING W MON
NIGHT THEN MOVE E AGAIN OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON TUE. THE FRONT
WILL REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N75W OVER E PANAMA TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N81W
CONTINUING W OVER COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA...COSTA RICA AND
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N PORTION OF THE HISPANIOLA AND IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW ATLC N OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TODAY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE N PORTION
OF THE ISLAND SHOWERS THROUGH MON EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC
W OF 75W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 72W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N75W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W
ALONG 26N45W TO 23N51W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N57W
TO 21N61W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 21N72W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS ALONG 29N66W TO 29N69W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 27N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E
ALONG 31N TONIGHT AND MOVE N OF AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
DEVELOPING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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