[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N16W TO 04N26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 06W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 14W-
26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FURTHER PROMOTING THE FAIR
WEATHER IS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...CONTINUES TO
REMAIN A FAIRLY BENIGN FEATURE DUE IN PART TO MOST OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE BASIN OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH WESTERN PORTIONS BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
WEAKEN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OCCURRING REMAINS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AS PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 09N FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING WITH TRADES PERSISTING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-76W THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AS A RESULT OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING SW TO 30N76W THEN WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 30N81W. WHILE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY LIES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS COLD FRONT LACKS
CONVECTION AND REMAINS IN FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.
FARTHER EAST...A BROAD AND DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 994 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 45N41W.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W CONTINUING SW TO 26N50W TO 22N64W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEARLY PARALLELS THE COLD FRONT FROM
31N42W SW TO 25N50W TO 21N60W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N...AND FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
48W-69W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 36N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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