[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON APR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N14W TO 2N25W
2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...TO 3S39W NEAR THE COAST
OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...AND FROM 2N TO 1S BETWEEN
48W AND 51W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 4N TO 3S BETWEEN 27W
AND 40W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 9N1W IN GHANA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF GHANA...TO 3N6W AND 3N12W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
THE EQUATOR TO THE EAST OF 8W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD...THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL STATES BETWEEN FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE AREA
OF BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...FROM THE AREA OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG
WERE BEING OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF LOUISIANA. THE SKIES
HAVE BEEN CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PATTERSON LOUISIANA STILL IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING.
MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. SCATTERED
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD.
VALPARAISO IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/
CLEARING SKIES COVER FORT MYERS AND NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE
TRADEWIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.57 IN
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.24 IN TRINIDAD. THE PRECIPITATION
IN MONTEGO BAY WAS RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 20N82W. THE PRECIPITATION IN TRINIDAD WAS RELATED TO A
WEAK MAXIMA IN MOISTURE THAT PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MAY CONTINUE TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WEAK
MAXIMA IN MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
AND IT MAY ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO
RICO. SUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AS SUBSIDENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND 500 MB SHOWS NORTHWEST TO
WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP
OF THE AREA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 33N70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N...BETWEEN 60W AND
80W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N70W...TO 22N74W IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N78W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
20N78W TO 20N82W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM 32N SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN
62W AND 65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N33W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N47W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE... APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 500
NM TO 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N34W 17N42W...AND WITHIN 800
NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 17N42W 11N49W 9N59W.

A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N47W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 67W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W TO 21N75W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N74W TO 27N77W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
TO THE EAST OF 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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