[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE
SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE WESTERNMOST
PART OF THE AXIS BEING AT SW SENEGAL. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
05N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N25W 01N36W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 02S-05N BETWEEN 14W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM N AND S OF THE ITCZ W OF
26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING STABILITY AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH S OF THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W
AND PROVIDES THE GULF WITH N-NE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN BASIN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW AND
SW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORT LIGHTER NE WINDS RANGING FROM 5-15 KT.
A WESTWARD-MOVING MOIST AIRMASS HAS REACHED JAMAICA AND CENTRAL-
EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WET
TRADES ARE ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA.
TROUGHINESS ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1011 MB LOW OVER JACKSONVILLE NEAR 30N81W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT ALONG 30N79W 26N79W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N82W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDS FROM 30N74W TO 27N75W TO EASTERN-CENTRAL ANDROS NEAR
24N77W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTING DATA INDICATE THERE ARE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND
WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE N OF 24N. BOTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING AND SUBSIDE SUN AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT SE INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION BY SUN AFTERNOON. FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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