[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 2W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-27W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER S ALABAMA TO OVER THE GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1011 MB
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING ALONG 25N85W TO OVER THE N YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO OVER SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
23N84W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. LOW WILL MOVE INLAND
OVER FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF BY
SAT AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS SUN
THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N E OF 67W TO
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA ALONG 15N70W TO 17N80W
COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND E CUBA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
SAT.THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC
THROUGH WED.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING
HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND
32N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N26W ALONG 28N31W TO 27N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY
OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ABOUT
550 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR
26N23W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING THEN N OF THE AREA SUN. THE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL EXTEND 31N76W THROUGH 27N76W TO
22N74W SUN EVENING AND FROM 31N70W THROUGH 27N70W TO 22N71W MON
EVENING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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