[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES OVER FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N18W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR
NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
3N W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR E OF 17W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 4N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER THE W GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM E/CENTRAL CUBA E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A 1012 MB LOW DEVELOPED AT 18/0600 UTC CENTERED NEAR
28N87W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW TO 23N91W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N85W TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA
WHERE IT CONNECTS TO THE A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W
ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N92W
TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N91W ALONG 25N88W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST
NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
GULF S OF 23N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT N THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW MOVING E-NE. BY SAT
MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER N FLORIDA WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S-SW OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE E AWAY
FROM FLORIDA DURING SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING THE FRONT E OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-82W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO 1N72W COVERING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE E PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W
ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH
THE AXIS JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N72W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N77W TO
OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR VERO BEACH TO TAMPA BAY. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N33W ALONG 29N38W TO
26N47W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS
N FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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