[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N82W TO 27N87W TO 26N94W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A WARM FRONT
FROM 30N83W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR
28.5N88W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER
TO 24N92W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...
WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALE FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET...ALSO WITHIN 90 NM NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS OF
THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N14W TO 1N23W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 3S36W AND 2S39W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 24W AND
28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
4N TO 4S BETWEEN 18W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS AND INTO MEXICO. MOST OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANYING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. SOME CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
70W. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N76W...TO
THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N86W...TO 26N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 24N92W 22N94W 19N94W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN ALABAMA AND
LOUISIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE NEARBY WATERS FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND IN
CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...A CEILING AT 6500
FEET AT KHQI...KGBK...KCRH...A CEILING AT 7500 FEET AT KVBS...
KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS
WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KBBF...
KBQX...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
FALFURRIAS TO VICTORIA AND ROCKPORT. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PALACIOS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING AROUND THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND SPOTTY RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF MARIANNA. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING
REPORTED AT TIMES IN APALACHICOLA AND IN TALLAHASSEE. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. LOW
LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN
COVER PUNTA GORDA AND SARASOTA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE AREA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W... TO
THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE WEST OF 80W...
IN THE SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN
GUADELOUPE...0.24 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.05 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA.
LOW CLOUDS WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. IT IS RAINING AROUND
PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR THE FIRST18
HOURS OR SO. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE TIME...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
ELSEWHERE WITHIN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N70W
TO 31N35W TO 24N35W TO 19N64W TO 31N70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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