[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S28W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND
CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR/1N TO 40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 280 NM TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 5S28W 1S28W 1S31W 1N34W 2N39W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N50W 4N40W
2N30W 1N22W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN GHANA TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...AND
IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 10W AND
13W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO
25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
25N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 19N91W STILL
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 89W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N95W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KVAF...KGUL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT KHQI...KGBK...
KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF LOUISIANA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA
GORDA AND NAPLES...AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N81W TO 21N89W. EXPECT WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N57W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
66W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
BARAHONA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W
17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY-
EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS
DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N29W TO
32N32W TO 24N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N25W AND 25N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 23N30W TO 18N40W
TO 15N50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 25N80W THEN
STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 13
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 22N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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