[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST TUE APR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N86W 18N94W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 13 TO 20 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W.
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...EXCEPT 12 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
22N. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE WEST OF
93W...IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF
21N TO THE WEST OF 93W IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 9N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N15W TO 4N20W.
THE ITCZ IS BROKEN UP BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 21W/22W
FROM 5N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W
TO 1S33W AND 1S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N27W 3N40W 3N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A...INCLUDING REACHING
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...CURVING TO 21N101W IN MEXICO. THE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN MEXICO FROM 21N101W TO 26N101W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 28N83W 22N88W. CLEARING SKIES
ARE BETWEEN 91W AND 97W IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENTLY GREAT ENOUGH
IN ORDER FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STORM-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KHQI...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...KIPN...KMDJ...
AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM THE APALACHICOLA-
TO-MARIANNA LINE WESTWARD. IT IS RAINING IN TALLAHASSEE. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING CITIES. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
PRESENT FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
20N60W...AND TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N86W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W...TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 16N70W 16N77W 20N81W 21N84W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NOW.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN
BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A CARIBBEAN
SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N61W...TO A
26N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N60W AND 15N66W IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N62W 26N64W 23N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO
32N32W...TO 31N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 32N32W...TO
31N41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N45W 25N34W...
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
31N63W TO 24N55W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 6-
HOUR FORECAST...THAT CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT TO BE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A
THIRD AREA OF INTEREST HAS TO DO WITH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST THAT
CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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