[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST FRI APR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO
15 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11
FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 09.5N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES
THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N18W TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 300 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 6N11W 5N22W 3N35W. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 98W FROM TEXAS
INTO MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N80W 27N90W 25N93W 22N98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N64W...THROUGH 32N70W...TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO MEXICO NEAR 22N99W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
SITES...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KEHC...
KVBS...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TEXAS FROM PORT
LAVACA AND VICTORIA NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
AND TO BEAUMONT...INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING REPORTED IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN THE PANHANDLE. A LOW
CLOUD CEILING AND FOG WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING FROM FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH
THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N60W AND
24N66W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 24N66W TO 21N73W BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE
FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 21N73W TO 20N80W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 16N84W
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
25N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N80W TO 16N83W COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT/WARM FRONT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS IN THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD...ALONG
12N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 12N77W TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE EAST OF 70W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
20N74W TO 18.5N75.5W...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EXPECT
ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W AROUND
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE SAME TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE MOVING
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W 28N73W
BEYOND 25N80W.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO A 26N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 18N39W 15N46W 12N54W...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 12N77W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT CURVES AWAY FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 26N31W...TO 25N28W 20N31W 18N40W 19N49W...AND 23N52W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 1000 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE 15N39W 10N54W 6N66W 7N82W. THE DRIER AIR COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N
TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N50W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN THE 26N32W 18N40W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 32N53W-TO-
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N31W LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 23N52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N64W...THROUGH 32N70W...TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO MEXICO NEAR 22N99W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N55W TO 24N65W THEN
STATIONARY TO 20N73W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W
AND 75W...INCLUDING IN THE APPROACHES TO THE THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS...A WEAKENING TROUGH FROM
18N35W TO 19N50W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net