[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 11/0000 UTC...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING
GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 16W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AIR N OF
27N...AND INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 27N.
WITH OVERALL STABILITY IN CONTROL...AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 32N73W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA TO 27N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W. WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...
MOSTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH E-SE RETURN FLOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BY LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W
SW TO 18N81W THEN S TO OFFSHORE OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 18N W OF 70W...AND W OF THE
WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW DUE TO THE
OVERALL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW NORTH ATLC. EAST OF
THE FRONT...E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT PERSIST
WITHIN RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING
PROVIDING FOR INCREASED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT GENERALLY S OF 15N
BETWEEN 67W-80W...WITH STRONGER WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED BY
11/0000 UTC WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS W-SW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO FRIDAY FOR THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 40N59W SW TO A BASE NEAR 32N67W. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N71W BECOMING STATIONARY TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. FARTHER EAST...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 26N32W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS
A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOCUSED ON A 1012
MB LOW NEAR 27N33W. THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE BELT OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N31W TO 24N31W TO
20N43W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 24N-
32N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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