[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST THU APR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W
AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND 20 TO 25 KNOTS...
EXCEPT UP TO 30 KNOTS TO THE WEST OF 70W. SEAS 8 TO 11 FEET TO
THE WEST OF 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W TO 4N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N12W TO 2N17W
1N23W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...TO 1S33W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 4N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LINE 5N12W 4N21W 3N32W 2N40W 1N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH THAT IS
SUPPORTING THE NOW-CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...
COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...TO A
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N93W. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS SUPPORTING THE
NOW-CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT/
STATIONARY FRONT...PASSES THROUGH 32N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO 27N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TO
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
21N76W...CURVING TO 19N80W...16N82W...TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA
THAT IS NEAR 10N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 27N70W...TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THE LINE
CONTINUES TO 18N81W 15N84W...INTO NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N77W TO 10.5N83W.
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT UP TO 30
KNOTS NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 80W AND 87W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FROM THE BORDER OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE
TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE REACHING HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 12
TO 18 HOURS. THE INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS AND A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE MONA PASSAGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF 40W.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 30N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N41W
14N54W...TO 12N63W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 13N76W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MARKED BY BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N53W AND 21N60W...TO
15N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO 26N70W TO
21N75W. N OF 26N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT N OF 29N. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...EXCEPT UP TO
12 FT N OF 29N. W OF FRONT TO 78W W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN W TO NW SWELL N OF 26N E OF BAHAMAS. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 28N35W TO 26N44W.
N OF FRONT E OF 42W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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