[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
S OF 03N BETWEEN 19W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES TO THE NORTH. THIS LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N89W THEN CONTINUING SW AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 26N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. WHILE MOST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH...THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE VERY WEAK...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-
90W...WITH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY W OF 90W. LOOKING
AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS ANY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NW GULF AND TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTS LATE SUNDAY. THE
NEWLY FORMED LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
ACROSS THE BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MUCH
OF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT REMAINING DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS
GENERALLY N OF 15N E OF 84W. OTHERWISE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EAST
TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AREAS BETWEEN 68W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ADVECTS WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS
MORNING AND THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE W OF 50W
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. TO THE NORTH OF
THIS RIDGING ALONG THE DISCUSSION BORDER...A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N60W TO 31N56W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 47W-63W MOSTLY
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W. THE FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO 23N40W TO 19N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...A SURFACE
RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED S OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 36N08W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER SW TO 18N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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