[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST THU APR 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N18W AND DIPS S OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA IN THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. IS SUPPORTING BROAD SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC E-SE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF REGION.
SCATTEROMETER SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-
20 KT W OF 90W AND 10-15 KT E OF 90W. AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FRI
NIGHT...THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTH A WARM FRONT SAT THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS ENHANCED WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT IN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN. A SHEAR LINE...REMNANTS OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR LINE IS A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...
A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE ISLAND AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WSW FROM 30N48W
WSW TO NEAR 22N769W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N41W SW TO
24N52W THEN AS A SHEAR LINE N OF PUERTO RICO TO SE HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N71W. EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 48W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SHALLOW
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR
LINE W OF 48W. THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC REGION IS DOMINATED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N70W. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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