[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE APR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO
5N15W AND 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 2N23W...
THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
4S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 27W
AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB SOUTHERN GEORGIA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...


FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...



...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW.

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS APPARENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY
RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
THAT HAVE FORMED WITH TRADE WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 65W
AND 80W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS PULLING TOWARD THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...NEAR 27N75W NOW.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N75W CYCLONIC CENTER...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
24N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W.  A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N69W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND 19N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 27N58W 24N63W 21N70W 20N73W AND 20N75W.
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING THE NORTHERN SHORES
OF HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A
LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN BARAHONA AND PUNTA
CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOW THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR
SO. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 26N62W AND
21N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N69W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND 19N78W BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 27N58W 24N63W 21N70W
20N73W AND 20N75W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE REACHING
THE NORTHERN SHORES OF HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A FAR-NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 31N14W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N14W TO 25N23W AND TO 25N32W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB SOUTHERN GEORGIA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO 26N72W AND 24N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N44W...TO 21N37W 21N28W...
AND TO 25N15W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 31N14W 25N23W 25N32W
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 32N56W 26N62W 21N69W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N57W TO 20N74W. EXPECT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 65W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT TO 72W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET TO THE EAST OF A LINE
FROM 31N41W TO 22N35W. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 40W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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