[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
01N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N17W TO THE EQUATOR TO 18W...THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W.
THE ITCZ RESUMES NORTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND EXTENDS WEST
ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-09N BETWEEN 06W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. AS A RESULT OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL STABILITY...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE
GULF NEAR 29N85W WITH E-SE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO
20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THE SW NORTH
ATLC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. MOST OF THE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AREA DUE TO A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 22N70W TO 19N78W.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING
IN CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES
PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NW OF THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM
22N70W TO 19N78W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND W OF 71W AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS TO THE NW. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BY LATE TUESDAY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLC NEAR 40N65W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N60W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR
21N71W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 69W-78W. FURTHERMORE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITH ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N80W GENERATING
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net