[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 272334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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