[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N48W TO 10N48W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE ENHANCING LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM
19N57W TO 9N55W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W OF THE UPPER LOW WITH CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 10N-17N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 12N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N25W 5N33W TO 7N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N20W 10N19W TO THE
COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N27W
TO 7N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA
AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 5N34W TO 9N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE N GULF ANCHORED OVER THE RIO
GRAND NEAR EAGLE PASS TEXAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CUTS
E/W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO 26N85W THEN DISSIPATES TO 26N89W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N
OF 23N...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED
NEAR MEXICO CITY MEXICO AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO W CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO
VERACRUZ. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF TONIGHT
REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS SE CONUS FRI AND SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN
DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR MEXICO CITY MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER W CUBA COVERING THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA COVERING THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-80W
INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS
AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 72W-80W INCLUDING MOST OF HAITI AND E CUBA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W ALONG 10N80W TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 71W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
TO NICARAGUA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE.
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE
GULF OF GONAVE TONIGHT WHILE THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO GIVE WAY
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL DIG S
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL POSSIBLY
INCREASE OR INTENSIFY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 70W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC
ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH A 1000 MB LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA ALONG
30N67W TO 28N70W WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY TO A 1007 MB
LOW NEAR 29N76W THEN COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR BOCA
RATON TO NAPLES THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO THE
FRONT BETWEEN 60W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ABOVE. AN UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 20N53W
AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ARE ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN MOST TROPICAL WAVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N37W. THE 1000 MB LOW WILL MOVE E-NE
WHILE DRAGGING THE FRONT ACROSS ATLC N OF 27N. THE 1007 MB LOW
WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH SAT THEN ACCELERATE NE SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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