[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N47W
TO 9N41W MOVING W-SW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 8N37W TO 16N48W.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO
15N57W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL
DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 16N-19N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N25W THROUGH A 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 6N36W TO 7N45W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM
14N33W TO 16N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19N-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N. A LOW LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N91W THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 27N93W
TO 25N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF THE LOW. AN UPPER TROUGH
IN THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE ACROSS APALACHEE BAY THROUGH PORT
SAINT JOE FLORIDA TO A 1007 MB LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N E OF 86W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA AND WITHIN 30/45 NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT E OF
THE LOW. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO
TO NEAR 17N93W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W AND S OF 23N BETWEEN
90W-93W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE SE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BOTH SURFACE LOWS WILL DRIFT E-
NE THROUGH FRI WHEN W GULF LOW MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS SE CONUS INTO N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF LINE FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER
BELIZE. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W COVERING
THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W ALONG 11N78W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N
W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON THE STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE.
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE E FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
RETREAT E AS AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE S CHANGES THE UPPER
FLOW TO WESTERLY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND FRI BEFORE DISSIPATE SAT. THIS WILL POSSIBLY INCREASE OR
INTENSIFY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA EXTENDS AN AXIS
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 32N72W COVERING
THE FAR W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W
OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH 32N63W TO 27N65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N62W ALONG 27N67W TO 27N71W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N72W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W THEN
CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
46W-55W AND FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
28N61W TO 24N69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N37W AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER E ALONG FRONT THROUGH SAT WHILE
INTENSIFYING. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO N CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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