[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
FROM 18N26W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. AN AREA OF AFRICAN
DUST IS FROM 12N-23N E OF 40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-
18N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N42W TO 10N39W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N52W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW AT 19N53W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW AND WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF S SENEGAL
NEAR 13N16W TO 12N20W TO 13N24W TO 8N30W TO 5N41W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
25N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO
BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVING E. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
24N84W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
DRIFT E.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-
87W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA TO
S GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS NE FLOW IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 12N76W MOVING W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA IS VOID OF CONVECTION. EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N65W A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 31N65W TO 27N70W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONTS TO INCLUDE
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 33N38W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
FURTHER S AT 25N34W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
32N16W TO 29N21W TO 29N26W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTONUES W FROM
29N26W TO 29N35W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
29N35W TO 29N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER
ISPRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN
47W-52W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N47W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. A THIRD UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N55W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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