[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Sep 24 01:05:02 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N38W 13N37W 8N34W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N48W 17N51W 13N53W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N29W 27N34W...AND TO A 24N44W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 24N44W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 29N BETWEEN
39W AND 52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W...AND FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA NEAR 17N17W...TO 13N20W 7N23W 7N34W AND
10N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN
17W AND 18W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
23W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO
AREAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N68W TO 29N69W AND 27N70W. A GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST HAS CROSSED 90W...MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH
A RIDGE SPANS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE NEAR-90W TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
31N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N74W TO 30N83W IN
FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF MEXICO 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N95W...ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...TO 30N83W IN FLORIDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 25N64W...BEYOND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INCLUDING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 26N TO 28N
BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 87W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVAF...KEMK...KEIR...KVBS...AND KDLP.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS AT PALACIOS AND BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR IN
TEXAS...AND A MIDDLE CLOUD CEILING IS AT BAY CITY TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...
AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE IN FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PANAMA CITY. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND
PERRY. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA TO NAPLES...WITH RAIN AND
THUNDER FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 26N63W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W...
TO 14N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 30N57W-TO-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TROUGH...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 63W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 15N56W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER
THAT IS NEAR 9N73W TO 7N77W IN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA NEAR
8N81W...THROUGH THE REST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THROUGH
WESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 30N81W. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO
THE EAST OF 37W. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST INCLUDES A 38W TROPICAL
WAVE FROM 13N TO 20N. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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