[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W TO THE SOUTH OF
24N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W
AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 24N34W 16N39W 10N42W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
12N21W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
13N32W...TO 8N35W AND 7N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N40W TO
5N46W...AND INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
CUBA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
28N71W...TO 23N79W BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN...IS 0.16 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W
26N69W 24N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...AND IN PARTS OF EASTERN EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 94W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE REST OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 93W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
TEXAS...ALONG 30N97W...TO 27N100W AND 27N102W IN MEXICO...AND
28N106W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N106W BEYOND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA...INTO THE
ENTIRE COASTAL PLAINS SECTION OF TEXAS...INTO MEXICO NEAR
25N100W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 93W.

A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N97W ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST. THE LOW CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE
LOW CENTER HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION WITH TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
ICAO STATIONS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND STRONG PRECIPITATION COVER THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND MOST OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS
TO THE WEST OF 91W. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE REPORTED AT THE NEW
ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
FROM MARY ESTHER TO VALPARAISO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1004
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24.5N97W. EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 390 NM OF THE
CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THIS WIND
FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING WITH TIME IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF HAITI AND IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ENDING.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE EAST CENTRAL-TO-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ON A LINE
THAT PASSES FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL AND LATER EASTERN CUBA.
THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO 16N80W AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
NICARAGUA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 74W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W...ACROSS
EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N78W...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA...THROUGH
NORTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO
WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO
12N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN
NICARAGUA...IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...AND IN PARTS OF EASTERN EL SALVADOR.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N43W TO
31N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 29N50W 28N58W...TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N62W TO
23N68W...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...TO 21N74W TO THE WEST OF
GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...FROM 26N
TO 28N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 61W AND
62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W
25N60W 22N67W 22N77W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N51W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N
BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N54W...TO A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N55W...TO 11N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 27N33W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE EAST OF 35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N62W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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