[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 191441
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS SPUTTERING THIS MORNING
AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERION NEEDED FOR MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS
AND STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TOWARD THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
ADDITIONALLY...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING
LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF HUMBERTO IN ABOUT A DAY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HUMBERTO AS A 30 KT CYCLONE UNTIL
DISSIPATION...AS INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATED AT 25
DEGREES AT 5 KT.  HUMBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS SWEPT UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
ONE IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK
ENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 32.8N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 34.2N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 36.8N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


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