[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO AT 17/2100 UTC IS NEAR
30.3N 42.8W OR ABOUT 908 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ABOUT HUMBERTO THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4... AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTEAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA
BETWEEN 82W-92W.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS LOW
WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS
ALREADY IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID
AND MANUEL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N24W TO
9N27W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. AN AREA OF DUST
IS NOTED FURTHER W HOWEVER BETWEEN 27W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
15N23W TO 10N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N32W TO 10N40W TO
11N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 23W-
29W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA TOGETHER WITH THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ADVECTING FROM
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. FURTHER W... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER NE MEXICO...S TEXAS...AND THE W GULF W OF 96W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO ADVECT
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA DUE TO
EVENING AIRMASS HEATING. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E PANAMA
TO TO N NICARAGUA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.
SILILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 15N AND E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N79W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE BELIZE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE W...AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NE OF
THE ISLAND NEAR 22N66W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TOMORROW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N69W TO 24N72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 61W-70W. T.S.HUMBERTO IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE
ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N43W NEAR HUMBERTO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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