[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID AT 17/0300 UTC IS
INLAND NEAR 23.7N 99.4W OR ABOUT 8 NM W OF CIUDAD VICTORIA
MEXICO MOVING W AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT
INGRID THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5. PRESENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
OVER EASTERN MEXICO FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 98W-100W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-
26N BETWEEN 96W-101W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO AT 17/0300 UTC IS NEAR
27.0N 43.3W OR ABOUT 1056 NM SW OF THE AZORES. HUMBERTO STALLED
AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENED. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT
HUMBERTO THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4... AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT4. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N-NE OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 19N21W TO 10N24W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KNOTS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH DRIER AIR N-NW OF THE
AXIS. METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE CONTINUES
ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
14N25W TO 09N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N34W TO 10N49W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN
20W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 37W-44W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF IT
BETWEEN 43W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 50W-
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ADVECTION OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN
GULF SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION INGRID...NOW INLAND MEXICO. A COL/AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS WELL AS A RIDGE IN THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION TOO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM INGRID EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER
OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 90W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF JUST W OF A WEAK RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN
THE BASIN. MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN.

INGRID IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS BROAD DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY VERY MOIST AIR IN THE
REGION AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF AND A WEAK RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-71W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-83W.

THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE IT HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME IS BEING
HINDERED BY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WHICH
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. THE
BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF JUST W OF A
WEAK RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
ADJACENT WATERS S OF 28N W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
SW N ATLC FROM 27N66W TO 23N70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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